Southern Bluefin Madness

Southern bluefin is at just 5 percent of its pre-industrial stock…meaning it is by any definition a collapsed stock.  And this week, the parties to the Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin (CCSBT) are meeting to set new quotas.

While Australia is calling for strong action, it says that it may well ask for a 25 percent increase in its quotas.  This is, apparently, because of rosy model projections.  How on Earth can we already be talking about future quota increases?

As for the model projections, even Japan is wondering about tinkering:

We are feeling uneasy about the ESC’s (scientific committee’s) optimistic outcome…I am starting to wonder whether they might be some serious problems with the current model for projections … or the stock assessment methodology … or the Bali procedure which is based on the current model.

More here and (even better) here.